What’s “New” about a New Normal?
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7#,.3$*:$30.*4($#@6207$.#06.43A$3*-#$248#30*.3$",8#$+##4$3)*?$0*$.#(,24$-,./#0$1*4B5#41#<$$C,47$,.#$
,11#>;4($0"#$0,)/$,+*60$,$D4#?$4*.-,)E$24$?"21"$30*1/3$*F#.$)*?#.$.#06.43$24$0"#$:606.#<
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#1*4*-21$6>"#,8,)$,45$-,./#0$8*),;)207$",8#$)#5$>#*>)#$0*$,336-#$0",0$)2:#$",5$3*-#"*?$1",4(#5$,45$
0",0$4#?$#1*4*-21$.6)#3$*.$,4$#I>,4524($(*8#.4-#40$?*6)5$)2-20$(.*?0"<$J",0$0"#7$1*6)5$4*0$3##$?,3$
"*?$-,./#03$4,06.,))7$,5,>0$0*$-,K*.$3*12,)$,45$#1*4*-21$3"293A$)#,524($0*$4#?$?#,)0"$1.#,;*4<$$
L#0M3$)**/$,0$*0"#.$>#.2*53$?"#4$248#30*.3$",5$30.*4($.#,3*43$0*$(28#$6>$*4$30*1/3A$,45$1*4325#.$0"#$
>,.,))#)3$0*$0*5,7N$
1932:$!"#$OP$30*1/$-,./#0$",5$K630$#I>#.2#41#5$:*6.$1*43#16;8#$7#,.3$*:$4#(,;8#$.#06.43<$Q$GR%R$
5*)),.$248#30#5$24$30*1/3$?,3$?*.0"$*4)7$SG$1#403$+7$0"#$#45$*:$GRS%<$T*>#3$?#.#$324/24($56.24($0"#$
U.#,0$=#>.#332*4A$,45$-,47$>#*>)#$:#)0$,3$0"*6("$0"#$#1*4*-7$",5$>#.-,4#40)7$1",4(#5<$C,47$
248#30*.3$)#9$0"#$-,./#0A$,45$3*-#$?*6)5$4*0$.#06.4$:*.$,$(#4#.,;*4<$Q-2530$?",0$23$1*4325#.#5$0"#$
.*6("#30$#1*4*-21$;-#$24$OP$"230*.7A$0"#$-,./#03$)**/#5$,"#,5$0*$.#1*8#.7<$
US Stock Market Performance aAer 1932
*
$ 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
Q446,)2V#5$W#06.4$ GX<SXY$ G&<&ZY$ $$GS<GRY$
U.*?0"$*:$[G$ [$%<&\$ [$%<]G$ [$GG<R%$
^Q))$30*1/$-,./#0$.#06.43$+,3#5$*4$_WP`$GaG&$H45#I<
%$$
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. H4521#3$,.#$4*0$,8,2),+)#$:*.$52.#10$248#30-#40b$0"#.#:*.#A$0"#2.$
>#.:*.-,41#$5*#3$4*0$.#c#10$0"#$#I>#43#3$,33*12,0#5$?20"$0"#$-,4,(#-#40$*:$,4$,106,)$>*.d*)2*<$
1941: J*.)5$J,.$HH$?,3$.,(24(A$,45$0"#$OP$",5$K630$#40#.#5$0"#$1*4c210<$!"#$OP$30*1/$-,./#0$",5$
#I>#.2#41#5$0?*$1*43#16;8#$7#,.3$*:$4#(,;8#$>#.:*.-,41#A$,45$0"#$#1*4*-7$",5$3"*?4$32(43$*:$
3)2524($+,1/$240*$5#>.#332*4<$Q)0"*6("$1*48#.32*4$0*$,$?,.;-#$#1*4*-7$?*6)5$.#828#$245630.2,)$
>.*561;*4$,45$+**30$#->)*7-#40A$248#30*.3$30.6(()#5$0*$3##$+#7*45$0"#$1*4c210<$C,47$#I>#10#5$
.,;*424(A$>.21#$1*40.*)3A$52.#10#5$>.*561;*4A$,45$*0"#.$(*8#.4-#40$-#,36.#3$0*$)2-20$>.28,0#$3#10*.$
>#.:*.-,41#<$
US Stock Market Performance aAer 1941*
$ 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
Q446,)2V#5$W#06.4$ G'<]SY$ G]<]ZY$ $$G]<%RY$
U.*?0"$*:$[G$ [$$%<SX$ [$$\<]Z$ [$%&<\Z$
1974: H48#30*.3$",5$K630$#I>#.2#41#5$0"#$?*.30$0?*a7#,.$-,./#0$5#1)24#$3241#$0"#$#,.)7$GRS&3A$,45$0"#$
#1*4*-7$?,3$#40#.24($203$3#1*45$7#,.$*:$.#1#332*4<$!"#$C255)#$e,30$?,.$",5$0.2((#.#5$0"#$Q.,+$*2)$
#-+,.(*$24$),0#$GRZSA$?"21"$5.*8#$1.65#$*2)$>.21#3$0*$.#1*.5$)#8#)3$,45$.#36)0#5$24$>.21#$1*40.*)3$,45$(,3$
)24#3<$_*436-#.3$:#,.#5$0",0$*0"#.$3"*.0,(#3$?*6)5$5#8#)*><$`.#325#40$f2I*4$",5$.#32(4#5$:.*-$*g1#$24$
Q6(630$*8#.$0"#$J,0#.(,0#$31,45,)<$Q446,)$24c,;*4$24$GRZ\$,8#.,(#5$GGYA$,45$?20"$-*.0(,(#$.,0#3$,0$
G&YA$0"#$"*6324($-,./#0$?,3$#I>#.2#4124($203$?*.30$3)6->$24$5#1,5#3<$J20"$>.21#3$,45$64#->)*7-#40$
.2324(A$1*436-#.$1*4B5#41#$?,3$?#,/$,45$-,47$#1*4*-2303$?#.#$>.#521;4($,4*0"#.$5#>.#332*4<$
h$
US Stock Market Performance aAer 1974*
5 years 10 years 20 years
Q446,)2V#5$W#06.4$ GZ<%RY$ GX<R%Y$ G\<'RY$
U.*?0"$*:$[G$ [$$%<%%$ [$$\<S'$ [$G]<&Z$
1981:$!"#$30*1/$-,./#0$",5$5#)28#.#5$30.*4($>*32;8#$.#06.43$24$B8#$*:$0"#$),30$3#8#4$1,)#45,.$7#,.3A$,45$
0"#$0?*$4#(,;8#$7#,.3$iGRZZ$,45$GR'Gj$?#.#$*4)7$-*5#.,0#)7$4#(,;8#<$=#3>20#$0"#3#$.#36)03A$248#30*.3$
?#.#$?#,.7$:.*-$30,(c,;*4A$?"21"$?,3$1",.,10#.2V#5$+7$"2("$,446,)$24c,;*4A$,4#-21$U=`$(.*?0"A$,45$
64#->)*7-#40A$,45$:.*-$:#,.3$*:$,4*0"#.$#1*4*-21$5*?406.4<$H4$),0#$GR'&A$(*)5$1)2-+#5$0*$,$.#1*.5$
['ZS$>#.$*641#k*.$[%A\XZ$24$%&G&$5*)),.3<$il7$1*->,.23*4A$3>*0$(*)5$.#,1"#5$[GA%X]$>#.$*641#$24$
%&G&<j$C#-*.2#3$*:$0"#$GRZSmZ\$+#,.$-,./#0$)24(#.#5<$Q$GRZR$BusinessWeek$1*8#.$30*.7$;0)#5$D!"#$
=#,0"$*:$e@62;#3E$1),2-#5$24c,;*4$?,3$5#30.*724($0"#$30*1/$-,./#0$,45$0",0$30*1/3$?#.#$4*$)*4(#.$,$
(**5$)*4(a0#.-$248#30-#40<$$
US Stock Market Performance aAer 1981*
5 Years 10 years 20 Years
Q446,)2V#5$W#06.4$ G'<'%Y$ G]<X'Y$ G\<X\Y$
U.*?0"$*:$[G$ [$%<SZ$ [$\<]\$ [$GX<GG$
1987: n4$Dl),1/$C*45,7E$in10*+#.$GRA$GR'ZjA$0"#$=*?$o*4#3$H45630.2,)$Q8#.,(#$>)6--#0#5$X&'$>*2403A$
)*324($*8#.$%%Y$*:$203$8,)6#$56.24($0"#$?*.30$324()#$5,7$24$-,./#0$"230*.7<$!"#$>)64(#$-,./#5$0"#$#45$*:$
,$B8#a7#,.$+6))$-,./#0<$l60$24$0"#$?,/#$*:$0"#$1.,3"A$0"#$-,./#0$+#(,4$,$.#),;8#)7$30#,57$1)2-+$,45$
.#1*8#.#5$?20"24$0?*$7#,.3<$!"#$#F#103$*:$0"#$1.,3"$?#.#$-*30)7$)2-20#5$0*$0"#$B4,412,)$3#10*.A$+60$0"#$
#8#40$3"**/$248#30*.$1*4B5#41#$,45$.,23#5$1*41#.43$0",0$5#30,+2)2V#5$-,./#03$?*6)5$241.#,3#$0"#$*553$
*:$.#1#332*4<$
US Stock Market Performance aAer 1987*
5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
Q446,)2V#5$W#06.4$ G]<G]Y$ GZ<ZXY$ GG<'RY$
U.*?0"$*:$[G$ [$%<GG$ [$X<G%$ [$R<\]$
2002: l7$0"#$#45$*:$%&&%A$248#30*.3$",5$#I>#.2#41#5$0"#$30.#33$*:$0"#$5*0a1*-$1.,3"$24$C,.1"$%&&&A$0"#$
3"*1/$*:$0"#$P#>0#-+#.$GG$,p,1/3A$,45$0"#$#,.)7$30,(#3$*:$?,.3$24$Q:(",4230,4$,45$H.,@<$Q)0"*6("$
n10*+#.$RA$%&&%A$?*6)5$6);-,0#)7$-,./$0"#$-,./#0M3$)*?$>*240A$248#30*.3$",5$#456.#5$0".##$7#,.3$*:$
4#(,;8#$>#.:*.-,41#$,45$,4$#3;-,0#5$[X$0.2))2*4$24$)*30$-,./#0$8,)6#<$Q$7*64(#.$(#4#.,;*4$*:$
248#30*.3$",5$#I>#.2#41#5$203$B.30$0,30#$*:$*)5a?*.)5$.23/$24$0"#$D4#?$#1*4*-7<E$
US Stock Market Performance aAer 2002*
5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
Q446,)2V#5$W#06.4$ GS<'\Y$ k$ k$
U.*?0"$*:$[G$ [$G<RG$ k$ k$
2008−Today: !"#$-,./#0$3)25#$0",0$+#(,4$24$%&&'$.#8#.3#5$24$q#+.6,.7$%&&Rk(,2424($'S<SY$:.*-$C,.1"$
%&&R$0".*6("$%&G&<$=#3>20#$0?*$7#,.3$*:$30.*4($30*1/$-,./#0$.#06.43A$-#-*.2#3$*:$0"#$%&&'$+#,.$
-,./#0$,45$0,)/$*:$0"#$D)*30$5#1,5#E$",8#$)#5$-,47$248#30*.3$0*$@6#3;*4$30*1/3$,3$,$)*4(a0#.-$
248#30-#40<$l60$#,.)2#.$(#4#.,;*43$*:$248#30*.3$:,1#5$32-2),.$?*..2#3k,45$0*5,7M3$"#,5)24#3$#1"*$0"#$
>,30$?20"$30*.2#3$,+*60$(*8#.4-#40$3>#4524(A$36.(24($24c,;*4A$5#c,;*4,.7$0".#,03A$.2324($*2)$>.21#3A$
#1*4*-21$30,(4,;*4A$"2("$64#->)*7-#40A$,45$-,./#0$8*),;)207<$
n:$1*6.3#A$4*$*4#$/4*?3$?",0$0"#$:606.#$"*)53A$?"21"$+.24(3$0"#$1*41#>0$*:$D4*.-,)E$240*$@6#3;*4<$
J",0$#I,10)7$23$0"#$30,063$@6*$24$0"#$-,./#03r$$
!"#$1",.0$+#)*?$3"*?3$0"#$,446,)$>#.:*.-,41#$*:$0"#$OP$-,./#0A$,3$5#B4#5$+7$_WP`$5#12)#3$GaG&<$P241#$
GR%]A$0"#.#$",8#$+##4$*4)7$:*6.$>#.2*53$?"#4$0"#$30*1/$-,./#0$",5$0?*$*.$-*.#$1*43#16;8#$7#,.3$*:$
4#(,;8#$.#06.43<$H4$,552;*4A$,446,)$.#06.43$,.#$.,.#)7$24$)24#$?20"$0"#$-,./#0M3$R<]ZY$)*4(a0#.-$,8#.,(#$
i,446,)2V#5j<$!"#$-*30$*+82*63$4*.-,)$-,7$+#$0",0A$*8#.$;-#A$30*1/3$*F#.$#I>#10#5$.#06.43$.#c#1;4($
0"#$641#.0,2407$,45$.23/$0",0$248#30*.3$-630$+#,.<$$
J",0M3$4#?$,+*60$0",0r$
End Notes:
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